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来源:飞度咨询知道健康    发布时间:2017年11月21日 18:04:38    编辑:admin         

Canada’s government recently made an abrupt decision that could have repercussions for Australia’s aly overvalued residential property market.加拿大财政部长费海提取消了为吸引具有购买力的外国买家的政策,可能会对澳大利亚已经被高估的住宅物业市场带来不利影响。Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on February 11 announced that a 28-year-old visa scheme designed to attract wealthy foreigners to the country would be axed, effective immediately.加拿大财政部长费海提在本月11号宣布即时生效的新政:取消已存在28年的旨在吸引富有的外国人的签政策。Under the now defunct Immigrant Investor Program, as long as you had a cool $C1.6 million (.6 million) in net assets, then all you needed to do was lend the Canadian government $C800,000 for five years on an interest-free basis and you were assured permanent residency for you and your family and a fast-track to citizenship.原有政策规定,拥有净资产达160万美元的外国人,无息贷款给加拿大政府达五年,借款人及其家人即可获得永久居留权并可提前获得加拿大国籍。The decision raised some eyebrows, not least because preceding the decision there had been growing chatter that the country’s aly expensive housing market was being inflated even further by a wave of wealthy Chinese entrants into the country, and in Vancouver in particular.有一些人并不持原有的政策,很大一部分原因是越来越多人认为加拿大国内原本已高企的楼价被富裕的中国人进一步推高了,在温哥华尤为明显。At the time the immigration scheme was axed, there was a backlog of 65,000 applicants, of which 45,500 were mainland Chinese – and 80 per cent of those were bound for the province of British Columbia, according to analysis by the South China Morning Post.据《南华早报》的分析,在政策被取消时,有六万五千名申请者的申请被积压,其中有四万五千五百名为中国大陆人,他们之中百分之八十准备前往位于加拿大西部的不列颠哥伦比亚省。Indeed, The Economist rates Canada’s residential property market as one of the world’s most expensive. The magazine’s analysts say housing is 76 per cent overvalued against long-term averages on a rental basis – the highest among the 23-country league table – and 31 per cent against disposable incomes.《经济学人》杂志将加拿大的住宅物业市场评为全球最贵之一。该杂志的分析员认为在租赁方面,住房和长期以来的平均数值相比被高估了百分之七十六,是参评的二十三个国家中最高的,超出可配收入百分之三十一。The ratio of Canadian household debt to GDP has risen to almost 100 per cent, and has grown at the fastest rate in the world since 2006, according to the World Bank. In April 2012, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney – now the head of the Bank of England – warned of the risks of foreign capital inflating the housing market.根据世界的数据,加拿大的家庭债务与国内生产总值的比值接近一比一,是2006年以来增长最快的国家。2012年4月,前加拿大主席、现任英格兰行长马克·卡尔尼,警告外国资本具有使房地产市场膨胀的风险。More buyers to look in Australia更多的买家考察澳大利亚Canada may seem like a long way away but any move by Canadian authorities to reduce the risk of a -potential bubble and subsequent burst should be welcomed by Australian investors, says Tyndall Asset Management’s head of fixed income, Roger Bridges.廷德尔资产管理公司固定资产部门的负责人罗杰·布瑞吉斯表示,加拿大可能提早许多作出调整,但加拿大当局做出的减少泡沫出现的风险的举措应该受到澳大利亚投资者的欢迎。The country’s housing market is one on a list of “low probability, high impact” events the bond strategist is keeping an eye on.加拿大的房地产市场属于安全性高,影响力大的类型,正被债务研究人士密切注意。That’s because while our local lenders have little direct exposure to Canadian banks, the similarity between our two economies could cause a fresh wave of risk aversion among global investors, many of whom aly believe our property market is a bubble y to pop.上述现象的原因是,澳大利亚的本土放贷者与加拿大方面的只有很少的联系。两国经济的相似程度会使很大数量的全球投资者选择规避风险,他们之中的很多人已经认为澳大利亚的房地产市场的泡沫将要破裂。Of course, rich foreigners can only push up prices at the margin, and usually only in specific areas; low interest rates have helped fuel Canadian demand for mortgages, against the background of an economy that avoided a GFC-inspired recession thanks to its heavy emphasis on -commodity exports.当然,富有的外国人只能在边缘上推高价格,并且通常只在特定的领域。低利息率使加拿大,在严重依赖商品出口的经济背景之下对贷款的需求增大。All this might be sounding familiar to Australians, particularly those who have been house hunting in Sydney, where anecdotal evidence suggests auctions in some areas have been heavily attended by wealthy Chinese buyers willing to pay lofty premiums.所有上述的情况对于澳大利亚来说都很熟悉,特别是那些曾在悉尼购房的人。一些据显示,悉尼的某些地方的拍卖会已经有愿意出高昂额外费用的中国买家出席。And the decision by Canada to restrict access to such rich individuals can only boost interest in our market.而加拿大限制那些富有的人进入该国后,只会使澳大利亚市场利率升高。Research by HS Bank suggests more than one-third of affluent Asians own overseas property, and that our market is the number one destination for further investment. Of the wealthy mainland Chinese surveyed by HS, 9 per cent owned property in Australia, while of the respondents from Hong Kong, 10 per cent did.汇丰的调查显示超过三分之一的富有的亚洲人拥有海外资产,澳大利亚是他们进行海外投资的首选目的地。参加调查的来自中国大陆的人中有百分之九的人在澳大利亚拥有房产,来自香港的被调查者中有百分之10拥有澳大利亚房产。Of the rich Indians surveyed 18 per cent owned Australian property, 19 per cent of Indonesians and Singaporeans, 26 per cent of Malaysians, and 5 per cent of wealthy Taiwanese.其他地区参与调查的同样拥有澳大利亚房产的情况是,百分之十八的印度人、百分之十九的印度尼西亚人和新加坡人、百分之二十六的马来西亚人和百分之五的台湾人。But while home buyers may -complain, it’s great news for local -property developers, such as the listed Australand.尽管想要购买房产的人对这种情况不满,对于澳大利亚国内的地产商确是有好处的,例如澳洲置地。It revealed in its annual results on February 17 that it sold about 15 per cent of its residential developments to offshore investors in 2013, primarily mainland Chinese, almost double the historical average of 8 per cent.该公司在本月17号发布的年报显示,在2013年有百分之十五的住宅卖给了海外投资者,主要来自中国大陆,几乎是历史记录百分之八的翻倍。The sales were made through its Hong Kong office, which Australand opened some 10 years ago. The company said it expected demand from that segment to remain at the same level in 2014.交易在该公司十年前开始设立在香港的办事处进行。该公司表示他们预期2014年在该类型的房产的需求上会同2013年持平。But on the evidence of growing overseas interest in grabbing a slice of the Australian dream, that may be a -conservative view.但从不断增长的海外投资对于澳大利亚前景十分看好这方面来看,这似乎是保守看法。 /201403/278438。

When you talked cars not long ago, chances are you talked about the mass market brands: Mustang vs. Camaro, minivan or SUV, Toyota quality and Nissan design. Luxury models were an afterthought, a tiny slice of the market designed for the wealthy that was focused on more rather than better: more wood, more leather, more chrome, more status.在不久前,当人们谈论汽车的时候,多数讨论的可能是一些大众化的市场品牌,比如福特野马(Mustang)和通用科迈罗(Camaro)哪个好,买多功能休旅车还是买SUV,丰田(Toyota)的品质和日产(Nissan)的设计谁更胜一筹等等。豪华车一般不是讨论的主流。而且这个专为富裕阶层设计的细分市场往往更关注的是“多”而不是“好”:更多木料,更多皮革,更多镀铬,更显身价。Now the balance is shifting. Mass manufacturers are struggling with skinny margins, shifting loyalties, and global competitors while the makers of high-end cars seem to coast above the fray. They are accumulating record sales and building waiting lists of eager customers. More models bearing luxury brands are coming to market than ever before—and at more accessible price points. BMW alone will bring out five new or redesigned models for 2015, including its first two electrified cars. When the directors of the North American Car of the Year compiled their list of potential candidates for this year’s award, fully half were from luxury manufacturers. (For the purpose of this column, luxury brands include Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, Land Rover, Cadillac, Lincoln, Volvo, Acura, and Tesla).如今这个天平正在发生倾斜。大众化汽车厂商正努力解决利润变薄、品牌忠诚度转移和全球竞争加剧等问题,而高端品牌显示出了后来居上的势头。不少高端品牌都创造了创纪录的销量,而且还有很多顾客排队等着提车。豪车品牌推陈出新的力度也超过了以往,而且价格也越来越亲民。光是宝马公司(BMW)2015年就将推出5款新车或换代车型,其中包括两款首次推出的电动车型。今年的“北美年度风云车”(North American Car of the Year)大奖侯选名单中,有一半车型都来自豪华品牌。[本文中的豪华品牌包括梅塞德斯-奔驰(Mercedes)、宝马(BMW)、奥迪(Audi)、保时捷(Porsche)、雷克萨斯(Lexus)、英菲尼迪(Infiniti)、捷豹(Jaguar)、路虎(Land Rover)、凯迪拉克(Cadillac)、林肯(Lincoln)、沃尔沃(Volvo)、讴歌(Acura)和特斯拉(Tesla)。]To date, the big winners have been two German makers and one Japanese. While car sales inched up a mere 1% in July, luxury car sales jumped 6%, led by Lexus, Mercedes, and BMW. This year, high-end brands have accounted for 16% of all sales growth this year, though they represent just 10.8% of the overall market., according to Automotive News. Luxury car sales should top 1.8 million cars and trucks this year and may exceed the all-time high of 1.83 million set in 2007.到目前为止,豪车市场的是两大德国厂商和一家日本厂商。虽然今年七月美国汽车销量总体只上涨了1%,但豪华车销量在以雷克萨斯、奔驰、宝马等为代表的高端品牌的推动下却跃升了6%。据《汽车新闻》(Automotive News)报道,虽然高端品牌只占到美国汽车市场总份额的10.8%,但今年高端品牌却贡献了汽车市场销量增幅的16%。2014年全年的豪车销量预计将达到180万台,甚至有可能超过2007年183万台的历史纪录。Some of the surge is coming effortlessly from the easy-money, low-interest-rate economy and pig-in-the-python demographics of the aging population. “Luxury brands offer great financing deals, and very attractive lease rates,” says independent analyst Warren Browne. “In addition, the age of the baby boomers supports the ‘I deserve this now that I have made some money’ purchase rationale, and I expect this demographic effect will continue for the next ten years.高端品牌的销量激增,与美国宽松的货币政策和低利率的经济大环境有关,也与“婴儿潮”一代进入老龄化有关。独立分析师沃伦o布朗尼指出:“高端品牌会给出很划算的金融方案和非常有吸引力的租用费。另外,随着‘婴儿潮’一代人步入老年,也使他们产生了‘我既然赚了钱,就应该好好享受’的购车心态。我认为这种人口红利的影响还会持续10年。”But a bigger push is coming from the manufacturers themselves. They are refreshing their product lines faster than any time in memory and extending their brands in ways that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Few are holding back. Jaguar, a maker of sports cars and sport sedans, is working on a compact crossover, while Bentley is developing an SUV. They are following in the well-established tire tracks of Porsche. The sports car maker has doubled its sales with the Cayenne sport utility and Panamera four-door. At the same time, upscale manufacturers are pioneering new technologies that put substance behind their outsize price premiums. Mercedes is a leader in assisted driving while BMW pioneers carbon fiber research and Jaguar Land Rover perfects techniques in aluminum body structures.更大的推动力则来自汽车厂商本身。他们正在以史无前例的速度更新产品线,并且以10年前根本无法想象的方式扩展他们的品牌。比如跑车品牌捷豹正在研发一款紧凑跨界车型,而宾利(Bentley)正在研发一款SUV。这两家品牌都在复制保时捷的发展轨迹。保时捷的卡宴(Cayenne)SUV和四门版帕纳梅拉(Panamera)的销量已经翻了一番。与此同时,各大高端厂商也不遗余力地开发创新技术,以便让它的价格物有所值。比如奔驰已经成为辅助驾驶技术的领军者,而宝马则积极开展碳纤维研究,捷豹路虎则进一步完善了铝合金车身框架技术。There are lots of risks associated with this new dynamic business model, and it’s early days. All manufacturers want a share of luxury sales, and giants like General Motors are continuing to upgrade their popular-priced offerings, forcing consumers to choose between a stripped Cadillac and a loaded Chevy Impala. Says Edmunds.com analyst Jessica Caldwell: “As luxury brands move down-market with their product offerings, mainstream brands are increasing content and in-car amenities. As a result, there is a bit of squeeze happening. Right now, luxury brands have a lot of equity built up over the years but that doesn’t last forever especially as car shoppers look for value.”这种新的商业模式也带来了不少风险,而且这才是刚开始。所有汽车厂商都想从豪车销售中分一杯羹,像通用汽车(General Motors)这样的行业巨头也在对旗下的平价车型进行持续升级,迫使消费者在减配版的凯迪拉克和高配版的雪佛兰英帕拉(Chevy Impala)之间做选择。汽车网站Edmunds.com的分析师杰西卡o考德维尔表示:“随着豪华品牌携新产品进入平价市场,主流品牌也正在增加车内配置,提高舒适性,因此市场上出现了相互挤压的情况。现在豪华品牌虽然拥有多年积攒下的家当,但这种优势并不会永远持续下去,尤其是购车者最关心的还是车的价值。”More worrisome for luxury manufacturers is the damage that could be done to long-established reputations as they move down the price ladder. History provides some lessons in how not to succeed. Those with long memories will recall GM’s efforts to turn a Chevrolet Cavalier into the Cadillac Cimarron in the 1980s or Mercedes’ half-hearted C230 Kompressor hatchback from the early aughts. Lexus boss Mark Templin warns that a ,000 price may be the cut off. “You can’t build a Lexus with the quality, the durability, the reliability, the craftsmanship, the content that we put in a Lexus and sell it profitably under ,000,” he tells Automotive News. “You just can’t do it.对于豪车品牌来说,更值得担心的是随着他们的车型价格的下探,他们长期以来建立的声誉是否会受到影响。历史明豪车贱卖也有失败的例子。记性好的人可能还记得上世纪80年代通用汽车曾试图把雪佛兰Cavalier改成一款叫做凯迪拉克西马伦(Cimarron)的车型;另外在本世纪头10年,奔驰也推出了一辆差强人意的C230机械增压掀背车。雷克萨斯的老板马克o汤普林警告道,30,000美元是高端品牌的红线。他对《汽车新闻》表示:“以雷克萨斯的质量、耐久性、可靠性、工艺品质和配置,不可能卖到3万美元以下还有利润。根本做不到。”But where there is risk, there can be reward, and aggressive behavior has been paying off where it counts: higher sales and richer profits. Mercedes has been selling a front-wheel drive compact sedan, the CLA, for the better part of a year with a starting price of ,900 and has moved 12,954 units in calendar 2014. The CLA I drove had a surprisingly sophisticated design and a smartly fitted interior. Likewise, Audi has managed to reinterpret its best features in the A3, which carries a MSRP of ,975, without sacrificing too many of the brand’s traditional qualities.然而有风险就有回报。大胆的尝试也给高端品牌带来了高销量和高利润。比如奔驰的前驱紧凑型轿车CLA的起价只有29,900美元,但从年初到现在,它的销量已经达到12,954台。我试驾过的那辆CLA具有非常复杂的设计,内饰的感觉也很相称。奥迪则将它的精华功能重新布局在A3里,它的建议零售价也只有30,975美元,但并没有牺牲多少该品牌一贯的质量。Lower-price cars make it difficult to achieve the lush profits upscale makers are used to. BMW has margin targets of 8-10%, but that will be under pressure as the proportion of smaller, lower-margin cars like the 1- and 2-series rises to more than 40 percent of the group’s overall vehicle sales from 25-30 percent currently.低价车型很难实现高端厂商以往那种丰厚的利润。宝马的利润目标是8%到10%,但对于宝马1系、2系等低利润车型来说,要实现这样的利润是有压力的。但目前,1系、2系的销量已经从宝马公司全系车型销量的25%到30%上升到了现在的40%。Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche is pushing for Mercedes to become the most profitable luxury-auto producer with a 10% margin goal, but he will have a hard time doing so by selling ,000 CLA’s. A decade ago, Mercedes Benz transaction prices were 93% higher than the industry average. In 2013, that number went down to 75%, according to Edmunds.com.戴姆勒(Daimler)CEO迪特尔o柴奇希望推动梅塞德斯-奔驰成为业内利润率最高的豪车品牌,也就是达到10%的利润目标。但是光靠销售3万美元的CLA恐怕是很难实现这个目标的。据汽车网站Edmunds.com指出,10年前,梅塞德斯-奔驰的交易价格要比行业平均水平高出93%。到了2013年,这个数字已经下降到75%。Not every manufacturer is sharing in the swelling of the luxury brand market. Honda’s traditionally under-performing Acura seems to be in perpetual transition. Originally designed as a step-up brand, it has never been able to market its interpretation of frugal luxury. Nissan’s Infiniti, meanwhile, still lacks a strong identity and established reputation. It suffered a big loss earlier this year when its highly regarded leader Johan de Nysschen, who had been recruited from Audi, defected to equally-needy Cadillac.也不是每个高端品牌都参与了大扩张。本田(Honda)旗下一向表现平平的高端品牌讴歌似乎永远都在转型。虽然一开始也被设计成高端品牌,但是讴歌这种“低调的奢华”一直没有什么市场。日产的英菲尼迪也仍然缺乏强烈的认同和声誉。今年年初,英菲尼迪又遭受了一次重大损失——被外界寄予厚望的领导人约翰o德o尼琛跳槽到了凯迪拉克。De Nysschen’s first task will be propping up sales of the compact ATS and fullsize XTS, both of which have been disappointing, and the electric ELR, whose sales have been invisible. After he has been in Detroit for awhile, he may wish he is back in Germany, where he would be closer to heart of the luxury car business.尼琛在凯迪拉克的第一个任务,就是如何提高紧凑车ATS和全尺寸轿车XTS的销量,因为这两款车的表现都比较令人失望,电动车型ELR的销量几乎更是可以忽略不计。等他在底特律待了一阵之后,他说不定会希望能回到德国,毕竟在那里,他会更接近豪车业务的中心。 /201408/323637。

Twenty years ago, federal poverty experts, inspired by the forceful arguments in the landmark book “The Truly Disadvantaged,” as well as by definitive research on the harmful effects of segregation, initiated a government experiment that moved 855 low-income predominantly African-American and Hispanic families out of public housing in poverty-stricken urban areas into less impoverished neighborhoods.20年前,标志性书籍《真正的穷人》(The Truly Disadvantaged)中强有力的论述,以及关于社群隔离的负面效应的权威研究,使得联邦贫困问题专家深受启发,于是他们启动了一项政府实验项目,让855户低收入家庭从贫困城区的公租屋中搬到经济状况更好的社区。这些家庭绝大多数为非洲裔和西语裔。The results of the project have provoked an intense debate.项目的结果引发了激烈争论。Under the aegis of the “Moving to Opportunity” program, begun during the first administration of Bill Clinton, the Department of Housing and Urban Development randomly selected a large pool of low-income families with children living in public housing in Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York. Ninety-eight percent of the families were headed by women; 63 percent were black, 32 percent Hispanic, and 3 percent white; 26 percent were employed, 76 percent were receiving welfare, and families had an average income of ,709 in 2009 dollars.该计划名为“搬向机遇”(Moving to Opportunity,简称MTO),始于比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)的第一个总统任期。当时,联邦住房与城市发展部从巴尔的、波士顿、芝加哥、洛杉矶和纽约随机选择了一大批有小孩的低收入家庭。其中98%的家庭由女性撑;63%为黑人、32%为西语裔、3%为白人;26%有工作、76%领救济,以2009年价格折算的家庭平均收入为1万2709美元(当时约合8.7万元人民币)。These families, 4604 of them, to be exact, were then divided into three groups. An experimental group of 1,819 families was offered “Section 8 rental assistance certificates or vouchers that they could use only in census tracts with 1990 poverty rates below 10 percent”; 855 accepted the offer and became part of the study. A second group of 1,346 families was offered more traditional “Section 8” rent subsidy vouchers that could be used in any neighborhood; 848 accepted.参与项目的共有4604户家庭,分为三组。一个实验组有1819户,政府向他们提供了“《住房法案》第8节规定的租赁补助券或代金券,但只能在1990年贫困率低于10%的人口普查区内使用”;855户接受了提议,参与到这项研究中。第二组有1346户,政府向他们提供的是更为传统的租赁劵,可以用在任何社区;848户对此予以接受。A control group composed of 1,439 families stayed in public housing and became part of the study. The purpose of the relocation initiative, according to Department of Housing and Urban Development, was to test the “long-term effects of access to low-poverty neighborhoods on the housing, employment and educational achievements of the assisted households.” Researchers also studied how relocation affected the health of those who accepted vouchers.此外还有1439户家庭留在公租屋社区里,成为研究中的对照组。联邦住房与城市发展部表示,这一搬迁项目的目的在于,测试“受助家庭进入低贫困社区后在住房、就业和教育成就方面的长期效应。”研究人员还研究了搬迁对领取租赁劵人员的健康影响。A paper published in the May 2013 issue of the American Economic Review, “Long-Term Neighborhood Effects on Low-Income Families: Evidence From Moving to Opportunity,” found that after 10 to 15 years, moving out of high-poverty public housing through the M.T.O. program showed mixed results.《美国经济》(American Economic Review)2013年5月刊发表了一篇题为《低收入家庭的长期社区效应:以“搬向机遇”项目为例》(Long-Term Neighborhood Effects on Low-Income Families: Evidence From Moving to Opportunity)的论文。文中发现,相关家庭通过MTO项目迁出高贫困公租屋社区的10到15年后,结果好坏参半。There were some positive developments, according to the primary author of the paper, Jens Ludwig, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago and the project director for a final assessment of the M.T.O. program. Ludwig and his six co-authors found improvement in “several key adult mental and physical health outcomes.” These included significantly lowered risk of diabetes and obesity, as well as an improved level of “subjective well-being.”论文的第一作者芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)经济学教授延斯·路德维格(Jens Ludwig)是负责MTO最终评审的项目主管。他表示,的确存在一些积极进展。他和六名论文合著者发现,受试者在“几项关键的成人心理与生理健康指标”上有所进步,比如糖尿病与肥胖症的风险显著降低,以及“幸福感”有所提升。But the Ludwig study also found that “changing neighborhoods alone may not be sufficient to improve labor market or schooling outcomes for very disadvantaged families.” Ludwig reported that this particular form of assistance from HUD –a housing voucher that allowed recipients to move into a “low poverty” area – had “no consistent detectable impacts on adult economic self-sufficiency or children’s educational achievement outcomes, even for children who were too young to have enrolled in school at baseline.”不过,路德维格的研究还发现,“光是变动居住社区,或许并不足以改善底层家庭的就业或学业成就。”他在文中指出,这种允许家庭搬迁到“低贫困”地区的特殊租赁券“在一些方面没有可观察到的持续效应,不管是经济上的自给自足,还是孩子的教育成就,就连实验伊始年龄尚小、没有入学的孩子也如此。”Ludwig reported similar findings in a follow-up essay published this week by Third Way, a Democratic think tank.在民主党“三维智库”(Third Way)本周发表的一篇后续文章中,路德维格提出了类似结论。Some of the nation’s most prominent poverty researchers, including William Julius Wilson, a professor of sociology at Harvard and the author of “The Truly Disadvantaged,” consider that the design of the M.T.O. project was flawed, leading to unwarranted conclusions about the lack of improvement in employment and schooling.美国的一些最为权威的贫困问题研究者,比如哈佛社会学教授、《真正的穷人》的作者威廉·朱利叶斯·威尔逊(William Julius Wilson)认为,MTO项目存在设计缺陷,从而引来了就业与学业方面未能有所改善的不妥结论。Wilson pointed out in an email to The Times that the families in the study who left public housing moved into segregated neighborhoods nonetheless, far from employment opportunities and with equally bad schools – often the same schools. Social conditions were only marginally better than those they had left.在写给《纽约时报》的电子邮件中,威尔逊指出,MTO项目里离开公租屋的家庭还是搬到了隔离社区,远离就业机会,而学校的糟糕程度也不相上下,子女往往还是去同样的地方上学。他们的社会状况只比之前好上一星半点。In addition, Wilson wrote, the adults in the program “had been exposed all their lives to the effects of severely concentrated disadvantage, and no matter how long they are followed in their new neighborhoods, the effects of those earlier years are not fully erased.”此外,威尔逊写道,参与项目的成年人“此前一生均过着极为底层的生活,无论到新社区里住了多久,早年所受的影响也不能完全消除。”Robert Sampson, a professor of sociology at Harvard, argued in a 2008 essay published in the American Journal of Sociology that the project should have been called “Moving to Inequality.”在《美国社会学期刊》(American Journal of Sociology)2008年发表的一篇论文中,哈佛社会学教授罗伯特·桑普森(Robert Sampson)提出,MTO项目还不如叫做“搬向不平等”。Sampson pointed out in an email that many of the adults in the program had lived in extreme poverty for decades and that the children, who were on average 11 years old when they entered the program, had spent their early years living in adversity. “The result,” he wrote, “is that developmental effects are difficult if not impossible to study in the research design,” which does not reveal the “lagged effects of severe disadvantage.”桑普森在写给时报的电子邮件中指出,参与MTO项目的许多成年人本已在极端贫困中浸淫了几十年,而他们的子女在项目开始的时候平均年龄为11岁,也已经历了早年的逆境。“结果,”他写道。“在这样的实验设计之下,很难、甚至是不可能研究发展效应,”因为这种设计没有揭示出“严重贫困的滞后效应”。While the M.T.O. participants moved to neighborhoods with somewhat less poverty and crime, their new homes were by no means in flourishing sections of the city. Sampson produced a map of Chicago showing that the overwhelming majority of families moved to areas that still qualified as communities of “high concentrated disadvantage” based on a measure combining poverty rates, unemployment, welfare receipt, female-headed households, racial composition and density of children.虽然参与MTO项目的家庭搬到贫困与犯罪状况稍好的社区,其新家所处的地段绝不是什么欣欣向荣之所。桑普森绘制了一幅芝加哥地图,其中显示,根据贫困率、失业状况、领取救济状况、女性撑家庭的数量、种族构成和儿童人口密度进行衡量的综合指标,绝大多数MTO家庭迁去的地方仍是“底层人口高度集中”的社区。In a separate study, Heather Schwartz, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, reached conclusions more in line with Sampson’s and Wilson’s. Schwartz examined the performance of low-income, mostly minority students in Montgomery County, Md., an affluent majority-white suburb of Washington.在另一项研究中,来自兰德公司(RAND Corporation)的研究员希瑟·施瓦茨(Heather Schwartz)得出的结论也与桑普森和威尔逊更为一致。在马里兰州蒙哥马利县,施瓦茨研究了大多为少数族裔的低收入家庭学生的表现。该县属于华盛顿的郊区,经济富裕,以白人居民为主。The county adopted policies dispersing public housing so that many of the tenants, who were 72 percent black and 16 percent Hispanic, were housed in middle-class, largely white apartment complexes.蒙哥马利县采用了让公租屋散布在各处的政策。租户中,72%为黑人,16%为西语裔。按照这一政策,这些租户住在以白人为主的中产阶级公寓楼里。This allowed Schwartz to measure the performance of children from public housing who attended schools with large numbers of well-off white students, against the performance of those who attended schools with largely minority populations and much higher poverty rates.这样,施瓦茨就能够将居住在公租屋里的孩子的学业表现与大量来自富裕白人家庭的同学进行比较;对照组的孩子上的学校则大部分容纳的是少数族裔学生,而且家庭贫困率要高得多。The results are striking. The low-income minority children from public housing all started with similar math scores. But after seven years, those who went to schools where fewer than 20 percent of their classmates were poor shot ahead of those who went to schools where 20 to 80 percent of their classmates were poor. This difference in trajectories is shown in Figure 1, in which the green line tracks math scores for poor children (defined as those receiving “free and reduced-priced meals” – a.k.a. FARM recipients) in relatively affluent schools, and the red line tracks math scores for poor children attending schools with much higher percentages of fellow students receiving FARM assistance.结果相当惊人。住在公租屋的低收入少数族裔家庭的孩子,一开始的时候数学分数相当。但是七年之后,同学中贫困率少于20%的孩子,比起同学中贫困率在20%到80%之间的孩子,成绩遥遥领先。图1的曲线显示了其中的差异。绿线代表那些上了较为富裕学校的贫困家庭孩子(定义为领取“免费和优惠餐”[FARM]的学生)的数学分数,红线则代表所上学校里领FARM比例要高得多的贫困家庭孩子的数学成绩。Perhaps the most important factors in the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage are the long-term effects on infants of living in extreme poverty.也许,贫困代际传递最为重要的因素是,婴幼儿时期极端贫困带来的长期效应。A study published by the American Academy of Pediatrics in 2011, “The Lifelong Effects of Early Childhood Adversity and Toxic Stress,” shows that “early experiences and environmental influences can leave a lasting signature on the genetic predispositions that affect emerging brain architecture and long-term health.” The pediatric study links “early adversity to later impairments in learning, behavior, and both physical and mental well-being.”美国儿科学会(American Academy of Pediatrics)2011年发表了一篇研究论文,题为《婴幼儿时期逆境与有害压力的终生影响》(The Lifelong Effects of Early Childhood Adversity and Toxic Stress)。文中显示,“早期经历和环境影响可在遗传倾向方面留下持久痕迹,从而影响正在成型的大脑构造和长期健康。”这项儿科研究认为,“早期逆境与后来在学习、行为及身心健康上的缺陷有关。”Early childhood stress affects the “developing architecture of the brain” in ways “that create a weak foundation for later learning, behavior and health.”婴幼儿时期的压力会影响“大脑结构的发育”,从而“导致后来在学习、行为和健康方面基础薄弱。”Looked at this way, the M.T.O. findings — that participants who were given vouchers for housing in low-poverty neighborhoods made no gains in employment and wage equality compared with those left behind in public housing and that their children showed no improvement in school performance — do not seem surprising.从这个角度看来,MTO项目的研究结果似乎并不意外。评估显示,比起留在公租屋社区的家庭,拿到租赁券去低贫困社区居住的MTO参与者,在就业率与收入平等方面没有进展,他们的子女的学业表现也并无进步。For one thing, participants appear to have been given little or no support other than modest housing counseling. But the issue is deeper than that: Multigenerational poverty is self-evidently more than a question of housing. It is unlikely to yield to even the best-intentioned one-dimensional approach.首先,参与者似乎只获得了不多的住房咨询,此外几乎没有获得其他持。但更加深层的问题在于:多代贫穷可不仅仅是一个住房问题,这一点不言而喻。即便是最具善意的单一措施,也不可能解决得了它。Multifactorial approaches may be more productive. Recent papers such as “The Legacy of Disadvantage: Multigenerational Neighborhood Effects on Cognitive Ability” and “Neighborhood Effects in Temporal Perspective: The Impact of Long-Term Exposure to Concentrated Disadvantage on High School Graduation” are part of a continuing research agenda looking more profoundly into the causes of the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.综合多种措施可能会更加有效。为弱势群体境况代代相传的现象,寻找更加深层的原因,这是一个持续进行的研究议程。最近的一些论文,比如《弱势处境的传承:居住多代的社区对认知能力的影响》 (The Legacy of Disadvantage: Multigenerational Neighborhood Effects on Cognitive Ability)和《从时间角度看居民区效应:长期处于弱势境地对高中毕业状况的影响》 (Neighborhood Effects in Temporal Perspective: The Impact of Long-Term Exposure to Concentrated Disadvantage on High School Graduation),都属于这个进程的一部分。The criticism of the M.T.O. study (which is now complete) points to new avenues for exploration. Even though the interpretation of the results of the housing voucher program has become contentious and somewhat politicized, the debate itself has the potential to be constructive.MTO这项研究(目前已经完成)遭受的批评,指出了可供探索的一些新途径。尽管对于租赁券计划结果的解释,变得富有争议,而且有点政治化,这个辩论本身却可能具有建设性。Significant change is possible, but more resources and more sophisticated research design will be a necessary next step.巨大改变是有可能的实现的,但下一步需要投入更多的资源,进行更先进的研究设计。Lines of possible future inquiry include evidence-based evaluations of total-immersion school systems like the KIPP program and a better understanding of the effects of poverty on brain development. Perhaps most importantly, in the debate over “neighborhoods or schools,” would be a concentrated focus on reducing racial and ethnic discrepancies in test scores, according to the economists Roland Fryer Jr. of Harvard and Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago. Fryer and Levitt argue that the elimination of “the test score gap that arises by the end of junior high school may be a critical component of reducing racial wage inequality.”未来可能要做的事情,包括对“知识就是力量”计划(KIPP)等完全沉浸式学校系统进行以据为基础的评估,以及更好地了解贫穷对大脑发育的影响。也许最重要的是,在“社区或学校”的讨论中,把侧重点放在缩小不同族裔的考分差异上,哈佛大学经济学家小罗兰·弗赖尔(Roland Fryer Jr.)和芝加哥大学经济学家史蒂芬·莱维特(Steven Levitt)说。两人认为,在初中结束前消除考分差距,“可能会是减少种族工资不平等过程的一个重要组成部分。”The two authors write, “we demonstrate that in stark contrast to earlier studies, the black-white test score gap among incoming kindergartners disappears when we control for a small number of covariates.” They add, “There is suggestive evidence that differences in school quality may be an important part of the explanation. None of the other hypotheses we test to explain why blacks are losing ground receive any empirical backing.”两位作者写道,“和早期的研究形成鲜明对比的是,我们的研究明,当我们对少数协变量进行了控制后,黑人和白人进入幼儿园前的考分差距就消失了,”他们还表示,“这是一个暗示性的据,显示学校教学质量的差异,可能是导致考分差距形成的重要原因之一。我们也测试了用来解释为什么黑人的成绩每况愈下的其他假设,但它们没有获得任何实的持。”We have to figure out a better way to approach intervention, whether it’s education-based or neighborhood-based or both. Otherwise how can we interrupt the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage we are only beginning to understand?对于弱势境地代代相传的情况,我们才刚刚开始有所了解;必须找出一个更好的办法,来对此加以干预,无论这个办法是基于教育的,还是基于居民区的,还是双管齐下。否则,我们怎样才能阻止它继续传递下去呢? /201409/331369。

One little girl was clutching her favourite toy while her younger sister was sucking her thumb – and both looked utterly lost and forlorn.一名小女孩抓着她最心爱的玩具,她的在一旁舔着拇指,俩看起来孤零零的,似乎迷路了。In a bygone era, a concerned adult might have stopped to ask them where their mother was. But in a damning indictment of modern Britain, hundreds of busy people simply walked on by.以前,路过的大人也许会停下来问问她们的妈妈去哪儿了。但是在英国,行人们谁也没有停下的意思,这是对英国社会的控诉。The girls stood for an hour on a Saturday morning in a busy shopping arcade looking for #39;help#39;, as part of a social experiment for television.周六早晨,女孩们在繁华的商业街站了整整一个小时,寻求路人的帮助。其实这是英国某电视台进行的一次社会实验。Astonishingly, over the whole hour only one person, a grandmother, took a moment to find out if there was a problem. All of the 616 other passers-by completely ignored the girls.令人震惊的是,一个小时里,只有一位老奶奶看出了不对劲。616名路过的人直接忽略了女孩们。Heartbreakingly for the mother of the sisters – who was watching from a hiding place nearby – passing couples even split apart to walk around either side of the #39;lost#39; girls and people wheeling suitcases took evasive action to avoid Maya and Uma, not thinking to check if they needed help.女孩们的妈妈在不远处注视着这一幕,心中酸涩。两个女孩一个叫玛雅,一个叫乌玛。并肩行走的两个人遇到她们时会直接绕开。拖着拉杆箱的路人对她们避之不及。没有人关心女孩们是不是需要帮助。Yesterday the NSPCC said the results of the experiment were shocking and called on members of the public to step in if they saw a youngster looking lost.昨天英国反虐待儿童协会表示实验结果令人唏嘘。他们呼吁大众积极帮助走失的儿童。Maya and Uma agreed to help and were brought along by their mother Reshma Rumsey, who watched from behind a nearby pillar with a presenter. Uma went first, standing alone in the middle of the concourse, holding her pink doll and putting on a good act of being scared and vulnerable.实验经过了两个小女孩的同意,她们的母亲一路陪伴着她们,在附近的拱柱旁静静观察。乌玛先出现在路边,一个人站在聚集的人群中间,抱着她的粉色娃娃,脸上是害怕受伤的表情。Under the gaze of the hidden cameras 25 yards away, dozens of shoppers and travellers bustled past. A mother with a pram manoeuvred around her, then a group of women pulling suitcases turned a blind eye.25个隐藏的摄像头记录下的是匆匆避过的顾客和游客。一位推着婴儿车的母亲绕过了乌玛,接着是一群冷眼旁观的女性拖着箱子离开了。After 20 minutes, not a single person had stopped to ask the seven-year-old if she was all right, even though some of them had plainly seen her.20分钟过去了,尽管一些路人确实看到了乌玛,当中没有一个停下来询问7岁的乌玛的情况。Next, it was her five-year-old sister#39;s turn. Maya stood sucking her thumb, and then tried kneeling down, gazing up forlornly at passing shoppers, but she too seemed to be invisible.接着,是5岁的玛雅。她吸着手指,甚至试图跪下来,眼睛盯着经过的路人。但是她就像是透明的。Eventually, a pensioner gave her a concerned look. At first, Pearl Pitcher, of Kent, who is in her seventies, carried on walking, but she soon turned around and came back to ask Maya if she was waiting for somebody.终于,一位老人给她投去了关心的目光。这位老人70来岁,一开始,她也直接走了过去,但很快就转身去询问玛雅是否在等人。Mrs Pitcher said later: #39;She had stood too long by herself and no parent or friend came up to see her. I was very hesitant to come and ask her, and I walked past but I thought I must come back – just in case.”老人后来透露:“她一个人站了很久,没有父母或朋友过去照顾她。一开始我有些犹豫,所以走了过去,但是我觉得自己必须回头帮助她,万一她走失了呢。”#39;I think the older generation would stop, but very cautiously, a bit like I was. I don#39;t know about the younger generation. A lot of people walked by and didn#39;t take any notice at all.#39;“我认为老一辈的人会停下来的,但是会很小心,就像我一样。我不了解年轻人,他们路过之后就直接走了,一点也不关心。”Mrs Rumsey said she was gobsmacked by seeing her daughters ignored by more than 600 members of the public.女孩的母亲说,看到女儿被600多个行人忽视的时候,震惊极了。Experts said the reluctance of the passers-by was partly explained by people being busy, and partly a fear – especially among men – of any help they offer a child being misinterpreted.专家们表示行人不愿意停下的原因可能是因为太过繁忙。也可能是出于担忧,尤其是男性,给孩子们提供帮助可能会引起误会。But the NSPCC said a child#39;s welfare was more important than worrying about being labelled a #39;stranger danger#39;.但是英国反虐待儿童协会称孩子们的健康比被误解为“不怀好意的陌生人”要重要的多。 /201403/282078。

Tesla Motors’ international job listings say it all.特斯拉汽车的全球招聘信息说明了一切。In Norway, a tiny country of 5.1 million people where the electric automaker’s Model S was one of the best-selling cars in 2014, there are about 90 job openings. In China, a massive economy of 1.35 billion people where weaker than expected sales led to executive turnover and a recent restructuring, there’s just one lone position.在仅有510万人的挪威,该公司的Model S轿车是2014年最畅销车型之一。在这里,特斯拉还要招聘约90名员工。而在中国这个人口达到13.5亿的庞大经济体,特斯拉的产品销量低于预期,导致了高层更迭以及最近的重组。在这里,特斯拉只打算再招一个人。That wasn’t the story nearly a year ago when the first Model S sedans were delivered to customers in China. Tesla, aiming to meet lofty sales goals, went on a hiring spree (and eventually amassed a staff of 600 people), opened stores and service centers, and began an aggressive rollout of its network of free fast-charging stations known as superchargers.不到一年前,Model S轿车首次出现在中国消费者面前,当时的情况可不是这样。那时特斯拉制定了很高的销售目标,并为此大举招兵买马(最终组建了600人的队伍),设立专卖店和务中心,并开始积极建设超级充电站网络,以便免费为用户提供快速充电务。Those efforts fell short. Tesla’s first year in China didn’t pan out as expected. The company sold an estimated 3,500 cars in 2014, below its sales goal and behind electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles produced by Chinese rivals BYD and BAIC. Sales continued to lag in the beginning of 2015.但这些努力并未获得回报。在进入中国市场的第一个年头,特斯拉的表现没有达到预期。2014年,该公司在中国的汽车销量估计为3500辆,低于它自己设定的目标,也不如中国竞争对手比亚迪和北京汽车生产的纯电动汽车以及插电式混合动力汽车。2015年初,特斯拉的汽车销量依然落后。Elon Musk, Tesla’s chairman, chief executive, and largest stockholder, has placed much of the blame on amisconception among Chinese consumers that charging is difficult there. During an earnings call last month, Musk said the company was working to fix that perception problem.特斯拉董事长、首席执行官及最大股东埃隆o穆斯克认为,这主要是因为在中国消费者中有种误解,以为充电是件难事。上个月,在业绩电话会议上,穆斯克说特斯拉正在着手扭转这种观念。However, Tesla’s China problem goes beyond a failure to communicate and educate Chinese consumers about charging the Model S.然而,特斯拉在中国遇到的问题不仅仅是沟通不畅以及未能让中国消费者真正了解Model S轿车在充电方面的表现。“This isn’t just a misconception, it’s a concrete problem,” said Lilia Xie, a research associate with Boston-based Lux Research. “China’s infrastructure, in many ways, is not ideal for supporting electric vehicles.”波士顿研究咨询机构Lux Research研究员Lilia Xie说:“并不只是观念上的误解,这里存在着切实的问题。在很多方面,中国的基础设施对持电动汽车都不理想。”Most families don’t have private garages and the population is very concentrated in urban areas. That means car owners typically park in public garages, on the street and at work, making it difficult to install private charging infrastructure, Xie said.她指出,大多数中国家庭都没有私人车库,而且中国的人口高度集中在城镇地区。也就是说,中国的有车一族通常都把车停在公共停车场、路边或者工作单位,因此很难在中国安装私人充电设备。Tesla is offering free at-home charging in an effort to ease concerns and continues to add to its 200-plus network of superchargers. It’s also working with property owners of residential buildings to set up charging infrastructure. Changing public perceptions in China is further complicated by consumers’ general misgivings about adopting new technology, particularly with cars. Xie said.为了消除用户的顾虑,特斯拉为他们免费提供在家充电务。该公司已在中国设立了200多座超级充电站,而且还在建设新的充电站。它还通过和业主合作的方式在住宅楼安装充电设施。Xie认为,中国消费者普遍对采用新技术心怀疑虑,特别是汽车领域的新技术。这让扭转公众观念的工作变得更为复杂。 /201503/364331。