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2017年11月21日 18:15:01    日报  参与评论()人

弋阳县丰胸多少钱上饶文眼线手术价格Gold prices have rallied more than 30 per cent since the lift-off in US interest rates in December. A sharp reversal in pricing, sentiment and positioning driven by myriad factors has left gold bears and bulls as polarised as ever.自去年12月美国加息以来,黄金价格已劲升逾30%。多种因素导致的定价、情绪以及投资头寸的巨大逆转,令黄金多空双方一如既往地两极分化。The bearish camp, with analysts such as those at Goldman Sachs, tends to have a constructive view on the US dollar and the ability to raise interest rates and normalise global monetary policy, and generally a benign view on the global economy and inflationary risks.看空黄金的阵营(例如高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师等)往往对美元以及央行加息与使全球货币政策正常化的能力持积极观点,并且通常对全球经济和通胀风险持乐观态度。In the bullish camp, to which I subscribe, the view tends to be more pessimistic on the global economy and the unintended consequences of monetary policy without limits. It sees the recent price action as the beginning of a multi-year bull run in gold.看涨黄金的阵营(我属于这个阵营)通常对全球经济以及毫无限制的货币政策的意外后果较为悲观。他们把最近的价格走势视为黄金多年牛市的开始。My view — that there is a perfect storm for gold — is based on three closely interrelated dynamics.我认为,黄金正面临一个完美风暴,这基于3个密切相关的因素。The first is the limits of monetary policy. In response to the Lehman crisis and to combat the threat of deflation, central banks have deployed a wide range of unconventional monetary policies. Quantitative easing and negative interest rates have been game changers — distorting the valuation of government bonds, breaking the theoretical ceiling in prices, squeezing shorts and underweight positions, and feeding what, in my view, is one of the largest financial bubbles in history.首先是货币政策的局限。为应对雷曼(Lehman)危机和抵御通缩威胁,央行动用了一系列非传统的货币政策。量化宽松和负利率已改变了形势,它们扭曲了政府债券的估值,打破了价格的理论天花板,挤压了空头和减持头寸,并助长了在我看来历史上规模最大的金融泡沫之一。At the epicentre of the problem are the central banks. Investors and savers around the world, faced with extraordinarily low and even negative yields in cash and fixed income, have been incentivised — if not forced — to lengthen the duration in their portfolios, increasing the risk of capital losses, liquidity and volatility beyond what they might intend or be able to tolerate.这些问题的核心是央行。面对现金和固定收益券的超低甚至负收益率,全球的投资者和储户被鼓励(如果不是被迫的话)延长投资组合的期限,从而令资金损失、流动性和波动性的风险超过人们可能愿意或有能力容忍的水平。Second, examine the edges of credit markets. The bubble in government bonds and duration has driven risk-taking across equity and credit markets, and lending to weaker and weaker credits, often ignoring or underplaying the risk of capital losses, liquidity and volatility. It’s a bull market that feeds on itself and benefits the weakest players most, such as emerging markets or high yield.其次,考察一下信贷市场的边缘吧。政府债券的泡沫和期限加大了股票和信贷市场的风险承担,并促使贷款被发放给信用越来越差的人,资金损失、流动性和波动性的风险往往被忽视或低估。这个牛市正自噬其身,而最受益的是那些最弱的参与者,例如新兴市场或高收益债券。In a world with limited investment opportunities, excessive risk-taking can lead to speculation and, of course, bubbles. The damage is done but can get worse, especially if countries such as China respond to future crises with more aggressive credit expansions, as it did this year.在一个投资机会有限的世界里,过度的风险承担可能导致投机,当然还有泡沫。损害已经造成,但还可能变得更糟,特别是如果中国等国用更激进的信贷扩张应对未来危机,就像今年中国所做的那样。The current path of monetary and credit expansion is unsustainable and will eventually burst, leaving investors struggling for the return of their capital, instead of return on their capital — an extremely bullish scenario for gold and other real assets.当前的货币和信贷扩张道路是不可持续的,终将破灭,导致投资者难以收回本金,而不只是投资收益,这对于黄金和其他实物资产而言是一个极其利好的情形。Third, the limits of fiat currencies are being tested. Unlike in the global financial crisis of 2008, this time there won’t be any monetary bullets left. Interest rates are aly at record lows, asset purchases suffer from the law of diminishing returns, and competitive currency devaluations only increase underlying problems and global imbalances. A dangerous slippery slope that paper cures miss is that they “eventually converge to their intrinsic value: paper”, as Voltaire warned.第三,法定货币的局限性正受到检验。与2008年的全球金融危机不同,这一次将不会有任何货币政策弹药。利率已处于创纪录低点,资产购买遭遇收益递减,而竞争性货币贬值只是加剧了根本问题和全球失衡。就像伏尔泰(Voltaire)警告的那样,纸币疗法忽视的危险滑坡是纸币将“最终归于它们的内在价值:纸”。Over the past few years we have witnessed the first stage of Gresham’s law, whereby “bad money displaces good money”, and we are at the early stages of the second and final phase, whereby “good money displaces bad money”.过去几年,我们见了格雷欣法则(Gresham’s law)的第一阶段,即“劣币驱逐良币”,我们现在处于第二、也是最后阶段的初期,那就是“良币驱逐劣币”。Gold and the dollar are best placed to play the role of good money, which could result in a substantial appreciation against the bad-money currencies. But the inability or unwillingness of the US to normalise its monetary policy leaves the door wide open for gold to retake its reserve currency status and put an end to the monetary supercycle that started in 1971 with the end of Bretton Woods. It is a period in which the outstanding volume of paper money has grown disproportionately to the amount of gold that once backed it.黄金和美元正处于发挥良币作用的最佳时机,这可能使它们相对于劣币大幅升值。但美国无法或者不愿将其货币政策正常化,这为黄金重夺储备货币地位并终结本轮货币超级周期打开大门。这个超级周期始于1971年布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)瓦解时。这段时期发行的纸币数量远远超过了曾经撑纸币的黄金的数量。Time will tell if central banks and governments will be able to engineer a smooth solution to the challenges ahead, or if the remedy will be worse than the disease.时间将明央行和政府能否为未来的危机找到一个平稳的解决方案,或者这种疗法是否比疾病本身还糟。Monetary policy without limits will lead to a very wild and bumpy ride and a larger crisis than the one we have been trying to resolve: a perfect storm for gold.没有限制的货币政策将带来一段非常荒蛮且崎岖的路程,而且会导致一场规模更大的危机:黄金的完美风暴。其规模将超过我们一直试图化解的这场危机。 /201608/459861上饶鄱阳县做双眼皮修复手术费用 Even as a global crackdown on secretive tax havens has gathered pace, Panama, an entrepot of offshore finance, has remained a stubborn holdout. 即便在全球加快打击秘密避税港之际,离岸金融中心巴拿马依然我行我素。 But a huge data leak from one of the country’s top law firms, Mossack Fonseca, and reports that it helped hide billions of dollars in assets for global politicians, sports stars and entertainers will test its resolve to resist a worldwide push for transparency. 但巴拿马顶级律所之一莫萨克#8226;冯赛卡律所(Mossack Fonseca)的大规模数据泄露,以及有关巴拿马帮助全球政客、体育明星和艺人隐匿数十亿美元资产的报道,将测试其抵制全球推动透明度的决心。 “There will be political pressure and commercial pressure,” said Pascal Saint-Amans, the top tax official for the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 总部设在巴黎的经合组织(OECD)的最高税务官员帕斯卡尔#8226;圣阿芒(Pascal Saint-Amans)表示:“巴拿马将会承受政治压力和商业压力。” Panama’s offshore specialists have long been used by some of the world’s biggest companies to hold foreign investments tax-efficiently. But the country has also acquired a reputation for opacity. Companies incorporated in Panama were more likely to appear in the World Bank’s database of big corruption cases, published in 2010, than those of any other country except the US and the British Virgin Islands. 全球一些最大公司早就利用巴拿马的离岸专家来研究如何以节税的方式进行外国投资。但该国也获得了不透明的名声。与在所有其他国家(除美国和维京群岛以外)注册的公司相比,在巴拿马注册的公司出现在世界(World Bank) 2010年发布的大型腐败案例数据库当中的几率更高。 Panama was aly facing international criticism after it emerged as the only significant financial centre to refuse to adopt new international transparency rules in February. The rules were introduced by the G20 after the US took the lead. 今年2月,巴拿马成为唯一拒绝遵从新的国际透明法规的大型金融中心,已经遭到国际社会的批评。美国率先采用了新的国际透明法规,随后其他20国集团(G20)国家跟进。 The groundswell of support for such rules was partly a result of public anger over tax evasion following the 2008 financial crisis. 持此类规则的呼声日益高涨,这在一定程度上是2008年金融危机之后公众对避税行为的不满所致。 Under the new rules, an unprecedented transfer of tax information will begin next year, easing attempts by authorities to prise open previously secret offshore accounts. 按照新规,明年将会启动史无前例的税收信息转移,这让相关机构更容易撬开此前秘密的离岸账户。 Panama is one of just four jurisdictions, along with Bahrain, Nauru and Vanuatu, that have refused to sign up. 只有4个司法管辖地拒绝签署执行新规,它们是巴拿马、巴林、瑙鲁和瓦努阿图。 One industry expert said that Panama’s refusal would force banks in other jurisdictions to do detailed due diligence on any entities they are doing business with in Panama. Some banks were likely to decide that the extra costs and regulatory risks are not worth it, he said. 一位业内专家表示,巴拿马拒绝签署新规将迫使其他司法管辖地的对所有有业务往来的巴拿马实体展开详尽的尽职调查。他说,一些可能会作出结论认为,由此导致的额外成本和监管风险是不值得的。 Fiona Fernie of Pinsent Mason, an international law firm, said: “There are a number of banks withdrawing from offshore jurisdictions. They are risk- assessing their business models and where they do business.” 国际律所Pinsent Mason的菲奥娜#8226;弗尼(Fiona Fernie)表示:“许多撤出离岸司法管辖地。它们正在评估业务模式以及业务所在地的风险。” Panama has aly made some changes in response to criticism from the Financial Action Task Force, the international financial crimes watchdog, which put the country on its “grey list” of anti-money laundering high-risk countries in June. It was removed in February after the FATF said it recognised Panama had “made significant progress” in improving its regime to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. 巴拿马已经做出一些改变以回应金融行动特别工作组(Financial Action Task Force)的批评。金融行动特别工作组是一家打击金融犯罪行为的国际监管机构,在去年6月将巴拿马列入其反洗钱高风险国家的“灰名单”。但今年2月该机构表示,巴拿马在反洗钱和反恐怖融资制度方面“取得了重要进展”,因此将其移出灰名单。 In particular, Panama tightened its rules on bearer shares — which bestow ownership on whoever holds the share certificates — at the end of 2015. 特别是,巴拿马在2015年年底收紧了无记名股票(任何持有股权凭的人即为所有者)的规则。 /201604/435735波阳县卫生学校附属医院割双眼皮手术多少钱

上饶市韩美整形医院减肥瘦身多少钱上饶医学整形美容去痘印多少钱 A Japanese sports shop is reporting a surge in demand for nipple covers as mammary gland concealment becomes all the rage in the eccentric Far-Eastern country.据一家日本体育用品商店称,顾客对乳贴的需求激增。这是因为日本这个奇葩的国家现在十分流行“隐藏乳头”。The Dot Store says nipple covers, usually used by long-distance runners to prevent chafing, are flying off its shelves, with 55,000 sets being sold so far this year.Dot Store表示,乳贴一般是长跑者用来防止衣擦乳头的,这款产品今年的销量非常好,目前为止已经售出了55000副。The figure far exceeds last year#39;s sales figures, though exact numbers were not given.这一数字已经远远超过了去年的销量,不过商家并没有给出确切的数字。The Dot Store#39;s nipple covers are adhesive, water-resistant, transparent patches similar to sticking plasters.Dot Store出售的乳贴是有粘性、防水、透明类似膏药的贴片。The feat has been achieved by marketing the nipple covers as fashion items instead of sports accessories.乳贴之所以大受欢迎,是因为它被定位成一种时尚单品而不是运动配件。An advertisement for the product shows a girl on a date being enchanted with her young beau when his nipples are covered but disgusted when they are seen poking through his T-shirt.在一则乳贴广告中,一个女孩和小鲜肉男友约会时,男友T恤衫下的凸点让她反感。但当他隐藏乳头时,女孩就被他迷住了。In one version of events where the lad#39;s nipples are covered, the couple end up together.在男生贴住乳头的版本里,这对情侣最终在一起了。But in an alternate reality where he neglected to cover his twin peaks, he ends up alone.但是在另一个版本里,男生没有掩盖凸起的乳头,最终成了单身。I can#39;t help but feel uneasy我忍不住感到不舒。It#39;s gross太恶心了。It#39;s like they don#39;t care about those around them感觉他们好像对周围的人满不在乎。I instinctively can#39;t accept it我本能地无法接受。It bums me out这让我很郁闷。They seem oblivious, even at work他们似乎一点都没有感觉,甚至是在工作中。I don#39;t want to associate with them我不想和他们交往。They come across as unreliable他们不可靠。They feel unhygienic感觉他们不讲卫生。I hope I never see them again我希望再也不要见到他们。 /201706/514428广丰区哪里割双眼皮好

江西上饶美白针多少钱 False reports of gunfire at Los Angeles International Airport on Aug. 28 caused panic among travelers, led to the evacuation of the airport and resulted in more than 250 flight delays. 洛杉矶国际机场8月28日的假击警报引发了旅客恐慌,机场进行了疏散,也有超过250架班机延后起飞。A similar incident occurred two weeks earlier at Kennedy International Airport in New York. 两周前在纽约肯尼迪国际机场也发生过类似事件。While there was no real active shooter in either case, the fear that fliers had during these episodes is very real.这两起事件中都不是真的有手发动攻击,不过旅客感受到的恐惧非常真实。Crime statistics show that over all, violence in the ed States is as low as it has ever been, yet terrorist attacks at airports in Brussels and Istanbul and mass shootings in the ed States have caused passengers to fear loud noises and commotion.犯罪统计数据显示,整体而言,美国的暴力案件发生率正处于史上最低点,然而布鲁塞尔与伊斯坦布尔机场的恐怖袭击,还有美国的大规模击案,都让机场的乘客对声响大作与群众骚动感到非常害怕。Here’s what you need to know about airport safety and what to do if you fear that an active shooter is at an airport.如果你想了解机场安全,或者如果担心遇上手在机场行凶,想知道该如何反应,可以参考以下几点:What are the chances of an active shooting or a terrorist attack happening at an airport?机场发生击案或恐怖袭击的机率有多大?Very small, said Larry Studdiford, a security consultant for airports and the founder of Studdiford Technical Solutions, a security firm in Alexandria, Va. 机率非常小。机场安全顾问、史达迪福科技方案安保公司(Studdiford Technical Solutions)的创办人拉里#8231;史达迪福(Larry Studdiford)如此表示。该公司位于弗吉尼亚州亚力山德里亚市。An estimated 3.5 billion people flew globally in 2015, according to the International Air Transport Association, a trade association for the world’s airlines, and comparatively, there were only a handful of incidences at airports. 根据全球航空公司的行业协会,国际航空运输协会(International Air Transport Association)估计,2015年约有35亿人乘坐飞机,相比之下,机场发生的安全事件只有寥寥数次。The chances of a passenger being involved in a shooting or attack at an airport are minimal, he said. 乘客在机场被卷入击或袭击事件的机率极低,史达迪福说。And, while fear of being at an airport is natural following any airport incident around the world, such as what happened in Istanbul recently, you are more at risk of getting into a car accident on the way to the airport than running into trouble at the airport. 在全球任何一个机场出事之后,像是近来在伊斯坦布尔的事情,大家在机场会感到害怕是很自然的。不过你在前往机场途中发生车祸的风险,比在机场遇上麻烦的机率还更高。If there’s a crowd of people running around an airport and you don’t know what’s happened, what should you do?如果有一群人在机场里奔跑,你又不知道发生了什么事, 该如何应对?Do not follow the crowds running around, said Mike Ackerman, an expert in travel security and the founder and chairman of the Fort Lauderdale-based security consulting firm Ackerman Group. 别跟着大家跑。回答这一题的人是麦可#8231;艾克曼(Mike Ackerman),他是旅行安全专家,也是佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡的安全顾问公司艾克曼集团(Ackerman Group)的创办人兼董事长。Instead, try to find a safe harbor in a quiet place, such as a restroom, and move away from the commotion. 恰好相反,你要找一个位于平静角落的安全掩蔽处,譬如说厕所,并且远离骚动发生的地方。Airports, unlike hotels, don’t have evacuation points because they are supposed to be secure, so it’s not like you can easily get out, he said. 机场不像酒店会有疏散集结点,因为这里被视为安全场所,所以你不太可能轻易离开,艾克曼表示。Your best bet is to find a way to stay safe within the airport.最稳妥的就是找个能在机场里安全待着的办法。If you are in an airport, and there is a potential shooter on-site, what should you do?如果机场里可能有手,该怎么办?The minute you hear a loud noise or any commotion, move away from it — not toward it — Mr. Ackerman said. 艾克曼说,一旦听到有巨大声响或是任何骚动,赶紧避开,别凑过去。There is a tendency for people to be curious when they hear a loud noise and go toward the trouble, but you want to do just the opposite, he said.不过你该做的恰恰相反。他说:人有这个倾向,在听到大声响的时候会感到好奇、往有麻烦的地方走。How do you increase your chances of staying safe at an airport?要如何增加自己在机场安全无事的机率?When you get to the airport and have checked in, get through security as quickly as possible, said Mr. 艾克曼说,当你到达机场并办理登机手续之后,尽快通过安检。Ackerman, because if an attack is going to happen, it will likely be in the area before fliers reach security. 因为恐袭要是会发生,很可能是在旅客过安检之前的区域。Most attacks in airports, including the attacks in Brussels and Istanbul earlier this year, happen before security checkpoints because the bulk of armed personnel are at, and after you get through, security, and a shooter likely doesn’t want to deal with them, he said.大部分的机场袭击事件,包括今年在布鲁塞尔与伊斯坦布尔发生的,都是在过安检之前,因为在安检与安检过后的地方有很多武装人员,手不太会想要对付他们。艾克曼说。 /201609/464738上饶市第五人民医院去痘多少钱铅山县人民医院激光点痣多少钱



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